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The Future of Seapower

Ukraine has neutered the Russian fleet using uncrewed systems and long-range strike. Yet, operations in the Red Sea and elsewhere reaffirm the value of traditional naval assets. How should navies balance investments in old and new capabilities?

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — September 16, 2025

The Evolution of Irregular Warfare

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have demonstrated that irregular warfare is a defining feature of contemporary conflict and a strategic domain in its own right. Ignoring it would be a grave miscalculation in an era of persistent geopolitical competition.

Commentary by Daniel Byman, Seth G. Jones, and Sofia Triana — September 16, 2025

Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could see the greatest naval battles since World War II. Twenty-six wargames illustrated the risks to China, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States that would ensue. Preparations by Taiwan are urgently needed to enhance deterrence.

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — July 31, 2025

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

NATO and Prototyping Warfare

In the future, NATO will revolutionize the way it organizes, operates, and fights through prototype warfare, becoming a more lethal and agile force capable of deterring and defending every inch of the alliance.

Commentary by Arnel P. David and Benjamin Jensen — July 8, 2024

The Future of Hybrid Warfare

In the future, NATO should embrace the concept of hybrid warfare and incorporate it into how it deters and defends. Starting with resiliency as the first step, NATO can use its strengths to put adversaries at a disadvantage and strengthen its approach to hybrid warfare.

Commentary by Frank Hoffman, Colonel Matt Neumeyer, and Benjamin Jensen — July 8, 2024

Using Artificial Intelligence to Rethink the Unified Command Plan

This edition of On Future War explores how the U.S. military can benefit from creative artificial intelligence tools to integrate cyber, space, and electronic warfare, better organizing the national security apparatus and ensuring readiness for modern global competition.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Kathleen McInnis, and Jose M. Macias III — June 17, 2024

Algorithmic Stability: How AI Could Shape the Future of Deterrence

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are reshaping national security and crisis management. This report delves into the future of deterrence and the role of human judgment in an AI-focused crisis simulation.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, and Jose M. Macias III — June 10, 2024