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Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis — November 18, 2025

Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear Risk

The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.

Commentary by Heather Williams, Joseph Rodgers, and Elizabeth Kos — September 16, 2025

Parading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the Shadows

China's Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.

Commentary by Joseph Rodgers and Heather Williams — September 4, 2025

Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild?

U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.

Commentary by Joseph Rodgers, Heather Williams, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. — August 6, 2025

Iran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation Regime

Rising tensions with Iran expose a volatile shift in the nonproliferation regime. As the regime’s normative power wanes, proliferation risks will rise, and military counterproliferation efforts will be more likely.

Commentary by Joseph Rodgers — June 20, 2025

Information Pollution and What It Means for Arms Control

Over the past decade, Russia has stepped up its disinformation campaigns to erode trust in arms control. Russian disinformation campaigns have served as a low-cost tactic for Moscow to spread confusion and distrust in the United States and other Western democracies. 

Report by Joseph Rodgers — January 25, 2024

Reactions from the Next Generation

As a follow-on to "The Fragile Balance of Terror," the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues invited eight early- and mid-career experts to offer reflections on the volume. These rising voices outline a landscape of uncertainty that they will confront throughout their careers.

Report by Heather Williams, Jamie Kwong, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Suzanne Claeys, Joseph Rodgers, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Melissa Chan, and Jessica Link — June 28, 2023