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On the Horizon, Vol. 8

The 2025 PONI Nuclear Scholars explore the future of nuclear strategy, offering perspectives from emerging experts on disruptive technology, intensifying geopolitical rivalries, and strategic stability.

Report by Doreen Horschig — December 18, 2025

Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis — November 18, 2025

Could the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Be the First Step Toward a NATO-Style Alliance?

The pact reshaped regional dynamics by deepening Pakistani-Saudi ties, straining India’s balancing act, and raising questions about Israel’s air access. Despite its NATO-style language, it lacks the nuclear and political basis for true collective defense.

Critical Questions by Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, and Bailey Schiff — October 6, 2025

The Fallout Factor in Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Program

Operation Midnight Hammer may mark the ceiling that conventional force can achieve against Iran’s nuclear program without triggering fallout. For Israel, this means future operations will likely involve sites that are more fortified or environmentally risky, or both.

Commentary by Doreen Horschig and Bailey Schiff — June 23, 2025

What Do the Israeli Strikes Mean for Iran’s Nuclear Program?

Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear and military sites. The future of Iran’s program and regional proliferation risks will depend on the success of Israel’s campaign, the international response, and Tehran’s perceived need for nuclear weapons.

Critical Questions by Heather Williams, Doreen Horschig, and Bailey Schiff — June 13, 2025

What Factors Drive U.S.-Israeli Differences on Iran’s Nuclear Challenge?

U.S.-Israeli differences over the Iranian nuclear challenge are growing. With Washington signaling interests in diplomacy and Israel advocating for military action, their diverging strategies could affect strategic alignment and coordination.

Critical Questions by Doreen Horschig and Bailey Schiff — April 4, 2025

Can France and the United Kingdom Replace the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella?

As doubts grow over U.S. nuclear commitments, Germany’s new chancellor has sparked debate on whether France and the United Kingdom could provide a European nuclear umbrella. But with strategic and doctrinal hurdles ahead, is Europe ready to reshape its nuclear deterrence?

Critical Questions by Astrid Chevreuil and Doreen Horschig — March 4, 2025

On the Horizon, Vol. 7

The 2024 PONI Nuclear Scholars explore shifts in states’ nuclear arsenals and strategies, the effects of the Ukraine war on nuclear dynamics, and the transformative power of emerging tech on nuclear decisionmaking, offering fresh insights and innovative solutions.

Report by Doreen Horschig — December 19, 2024

Reviving Chemical Weapons Accountability in a Multipolar World

Next week's 29th Session of the Conference of States Parties of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is an opportunity to revitalize accountability and global cooperation in an age of impunity.

Commentary by Natasha Hall and Doreen Horschig — November 21, 2024

Why Striking Iranian Nuclear Facilities Is a Bad Idea

Israeli military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could escalate tensions and push Tehran further towards nuclear weapons development. Diplomacy, although slow, remains the only viable way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Commentary by Doreen Horschig — October 25, 2024