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Transatlantic Relations Under Trump: An Uneasy Peace

President Trump’s transactional stance and skepticism toward Europe has shocked transatlantic ties linking trade, security, and Ukraine. Europe has been cautious, but looming fights over defense, tech, and trade could rupture the relationship.

Commentary by Max Bergmann — October 6, 2025

Defense Budgets in an Uncertain Security Environment

Uncertainty in the current global security environment since the start of the Ukraine war has increased global defense spending as states perceive themselves to be at greater risk. But political and fiscal realities will also shape future defense spending levels.

Commentary by Seamus P. Daniels — September 16, 2025

Russia’s Massed Strikes: The Strategy of Coercion by Salvo

Moscow calibrates the scale and tempo of its strikes depending on the political environment. Russia sought to avoid dominating international headlines with massive salvos while talks were underway. Once the talks concluded, however, Russia quickly resumed large-scale operations.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — September 9, 2025

How to Defend Ukraine’s Skies During Peace Negotiations

How many aircraft are needed to secure Ukraine’s airspace during a ceasefire? As history shows, deterrence requires strength. This analysis examines the force posture necessary to uphold stability and prevent Russian provocation.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen, Mark Montgomery, and Jose M. Macias III — August 20, 2025

NATO’s “Brain Death” in The Hague

At the 2025 NATO Summit, allies pledged to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP. But spending targets alone ignore deeper issues. Europe must shift its focus to building capable, integrated militaries that can operate independently of U.S. support.

Commentary by Max Bergmann — June 25, 2025

How to Secure the Black Sea During a Russia-Ukrainian Ceasefire

Securing a fragile Black Sea ceasefire demands more than diplomacy. NATO must field a multidomain fleet-in-being—one that deters Russia, respects Montreux limits, and projects power without draining overstretched naval forces elsewhere.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Mark Montgomery — March 31, 2025