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Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis — November 18, 2025

What Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security Environment

While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos — May 12, 2025

We Need More Off-Ramps for Nuclear Crises

States should develop off-ramps—such as crisis communications, third-party mediation, and narrative manipulation—now and in advance of crises in order to reduce the risk of nuclear use.

Commentary by Heather Williams and Nicholas Adamopoulos — May 12, 2025

Game On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms Control

Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?

Report by Heather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan MacKenzie, and Catherine Murphy — April 21, 2025

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Russia Arms Control

Time is running out for the United States and Russia to revive cooperation on arms control before the expiration of New START in 2026. Despite efforts from the Biden administration to kickstart progress, Russia remains an unwilling partner for the foreseeable future.

Critical Questions by Nicholas Adamopoulos — February 14, 2024

Conventional-Nuclear Integration to Strengthen Deterrence

The evolving geopolitical landscape demands strategies for disincentivizing adversarial nuclear use to advance regional goals. In response, the United States and its allies are considering strategies to integrate conventional and nuclear forces and bolster deterrence.

Commentary by Doreen Horschig and Nicholas Adamopoulos — October 4, 2023

Reactions from the Next Generation

As a follow-on to "The Fragile Balance of Terror," the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues invited eight early- and mid-career experts to offer reflections on the volume. These rising voices outline a landscape of uncertainty that they will confront throughout their careers.

Report by Heather Williams, Jamie Kwong, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Suzanne Claeys, Joseph Rodgers, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Melissa Chan, and Jessica Link — June 28, 2023