Analysis

All Analysis

Filter by

1 - 10 of 26 results

Will Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine Succeed?

Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine could open the door to negotiations—but its territorial concessions, weak security guarantees, and amnesty provisions risk making the deal collapse before it begins.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — November 21, 2025

Russia’s Intense Air Campaign in October

Russia's recent missile strikes indicate a transition in strategy and doctrine, where industrial capacity plays a growing role in determining battlefield dynamics. Massed salvos have given way to a more flexible strike schedule, necessitating an adaptive defensive strategy.

Commentary by Yasir Atalan, Erik Tiersten-Nyman, and Benjamin Jensen — November 14, 2025

What Could a Trump Peace Plan in Ukraine Look Like?

As Trump’s team pushes for a Ukraine peace deal amid new pressure on Russia, experts and AI models outline the most likely outcomes, from frozen frontlines to the economic and security terms shaping negotiations.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — October 17, 2025

Russia’s Massed Strikes: The Strategy of Coercion by Salvo

Moscow calibrates the scale and tempo of its strikes depending on the political environment. Russia sought to avoid dominating international headlines with massive salvos while talks were underway. Once the talks concluded, however, Russia quickly resumed large-scale operations.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — September 9, 2025

The New Salvo War

Russia’s evolving aerial campaign has normalized massed drone and missile salvos—now exceeding 700 munitions per strike and occurring days apart. This shift marks a deliberate strategy to overwhelm Ukraine through volume, persistence, and psychological pressure.

Brief by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman — July 31, 2025

AI Benchmarking and the Future of Foreign Policy

Winning the AI race requires more than innovation—it demands tested, trustworthy systems. The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan is bold, but without foreign policy benchmarks, the United States risks strategic missteps in the very domains it seeks to lead. 

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — July 24, 2025

Iran’s Options for Retaliating Against Israel

Iran faces a critical decision in responding to Israel’s unprecedented attacks; with an increasingly narrow options, the likely option will be a choice of missile and drone retaliation directly targeting Israel. 

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — June 13, 2025

Russia Conducts Largest Air Attack on Ukraine to Date

Russia’s largest air assault—over 1,000 drones and missiles—reveals growing stockpiles and production capacity. The scale, new tactics, and domestic manufacturing highlight a sharpened strategy aimed at gaining leverage in peace negotiations.

Critical Questions by Yasir Atalan and Benjamin Jensen — May 29, 2025

Drone Saturation: Russia’s Shahed Campaign

Starting in September 2024, Russia significantly ramped up its use of Shahed drones, increasing from approximately 200 launches per week to more than 1,000 per week by March 2025 as part of a sustained pressure campaign.

Brief by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — May 13, 2025