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Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis — November 18, 2025

Project Atom 2024: Intra-War Deterrence in a Two-Peer Environment

There is a growing risk that U.S. adversaries might resort to nuclear use in a regional conflict. To help address for this threat, the Project on Nuclear Issues invited a group of experts to develop competing strategies for responding to strategic deterrence failure.

Report by Heather Williams, Reja Younis, Lachlan MacKenzie, Christopher A. Ford, Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Ankit Panda, Melanie W. Sisson, and Gregory Weaver — November 18, 2024

A New Nuclear Age?

As the United States enters a "new nuclear age," the Pentagon’s approach is based on three assumptions: coordinated adversarial behavior, limited nuclear employment, and the failure of arms control. Despite some evidence, none should be considered forgone conclusions.

Commentary by Reja Younis — August 20, 2024

Charting 2024 through Data

CSIS experts offer insights on some of the most important issue areas shaping the world in 2024.

Digital Report by Jaehyun Han, Brian Hart, Heather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan MacKenzie, Reja Younis, Otto Svendsen, Sissy Martinez, Zane Swanson, Anita Kirschenbaum, David Michel, Henry Ziemer, and Michaela Simoneau — March 19, 2024

Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in Ukraine

How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.

Brief by Heather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan MacKenzie, and Reja Younis — February 23, 2024

Deter and Divide: Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in Ukraine

Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO's resolve.

Digital Report by Heather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan MacKenzie, and Reja Younis — December 4, 2023

On the Horizon Vol. 5: A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation

The authors featured in this publication were members of The Project on Nuclear Issues' (PONI) 2022 Nuclear Scholars Class. The PONI Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a select group of rising next-gen voices, comprised of graduate students and young professionals.

Report by Reja Younis and Jessica Link — February 28, 2023

The Adversary Gets a Vote

The strategic concept of “integrated deterrence” is gaining prominence as the Department of Defense further develops it—but how might advanced situational awareness capabilities erode stable nuclear deterrence and fuel reactionary arms racing?

Report by Reja Younis and Rebecca Hersman — September 27, 2021