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Measures Short of Invasion

China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking fears that it could invade the island.

Commentary — January 9, 2026

Why the Golden Fleet Will Sail

Debates over a new battleship miss the larger issue—how to generate affordable naval firepower at scale. Seen as an arsenal ship, a “Golden Fleet” could reinforce distributed maritime operations while helping reform U.S. shipbuilding.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — January 9, 2026

When Faith and Geopolitics Collide

The Dalai Lama is widely revered as an advocate for human rights and nonviolence, but Beijing considers him an existential threat. When the 90-year-old monk passes, a succession crisis will ignite geopolitical flashpoints that world leaders are not yet prepared to manage.

Report by Henrietta Levin and Alison Bartel — January 9, 2026

Imagery from Venezuela Shows a Surgical Strike, Not Shock and Awe

CSIS experts analyze new satellite imagery of U.S. strikes against Venezuela carried out during the mission to capture Nicolás Maduro.

Commentary by Ryan C. Berg, Mark F. Cancian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Jennifer Jun, Henry Ziemer, and Chris H. Park — January 9, 2026

Greenland, Rare Earths, and Arctic Security

Greenland holds globally significant rare earth resources, but harsh conditions and weak infrastructure have stalled mining. U.S. interests are best advanced not through coercion, but coordinated investment with European allies to counter China’s influence.

Report by Meredith Schwartz and Gracelin Baskaran — January 8, 2026

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026