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Three Points on Trump’s “Reciprocal” Tariffs

Beginning on April 9, the United States will impose country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs targeting 57 named countries, with rates reaching as high as 50 percent. At a minimum, each country will pay a 10 percent tariff, which went into effect on April 5.

Analysis by Barath Harithas, Evan Brown, and Catharine Mouradian — April 7, 2025

Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?

Nascent agreements over safety of navigation on the Black Sea indicate Russia’s desire to restart the Black Sea Grain Initiative, but Ukraine has already secured—and increased—its agricultural exports without Russia’s cooperation. 

Analysis by Emma Dodd, Joseph Glauber, and Caitlin Welsh — March 28, 2025

Bird Flu Spillover Increases the Risk of Dangerous Human Variants

Bird flu now infects over 40 different mammalian species increasing opportunities for the virus to mutate and become more transmissible or lethal in humans. As the virus becomes endemic in wild animal populations,a broader, long-term, multidimensional approach is required.

Analysis by Michaela Simoneau, Sophia Hirshfield, and Maclane Speer — March 25, 2025

China Dominates the Shipbuilding Industry

China has rapidly established itself as the world’s dominant shipbuilding power, marginalizing the United States and its allies in a strategically important industry.

Analysis by Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs — March 25, 2025

Dept. of Defense Faces Shutdown Amid Continuing Resolution Uncertainty

On March 14, the current continuing resolution (CR) funding the Department of Defense (DOD) and the rest of the federal government for FY 2025 will expire, and a government shutdown will take effect on March 15 at midnight if Congress does not act. On Tuesday, March 11, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 1968 to extend the CR through the end of FY 2025 on September 30, but Senate Democrats oppose the measure in favor of a short-term CR. 

Analysis by Seamus P. Daniels — March 13, 2025

China-owned Chancay Port Set to Become Latin America’s Third Largest

The latest capacity projections for the Chancay Port reflect China's expanding influence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Chinese port ownership could create strategic vulnerabilities and gain leverage over hemispheric commerce.

Analysis by Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Henry Ziemer — February 25, 2025

Trump's Prism: No Ally Is Good Enough

President Donald Trump’s treatment of allies and partners is more predictable than they may surmise. Trumpian statements proliferate about the need for counterparts to do more and to pay their fair share.

Analysis by Victor Cha and Andy Lim — February 18, 2025

Ukraine's Decreased Grain Production Creates Opportunities for Russia

Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s agriculture sector precipitated a substantial decrease in Ukraine’s harvested land area. While the sector is adapting, reduced farming and export capacity in Ukraine has realigned global agricultural trade in Russia’s favor.

Analysis by Caitlin Welsh and Emma Dodd — February 11, 2025

Trump Targets Largest U.S. Trade Partners with New Tariffs

The use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China risks undermining U.S. economic security by disrupting supply chains, increasing costs for consumers and businesses, and straining critical partnerships.

Analysis by Navin Girishankar and Philip Luck — February 3, 2025