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An “America First” Tech Stack Cannot Be America Alone

The administration has not yet revealed the details of the American AI Exports Program and how it will work.  To successfully compete with China, it should include the entire tech stack, facilitate cooperation with trusted partners, and be backed by real resources.

Commentary by Stephan Lang — January 15, 2026

In China’s Orbit: Beijing’s Space Diplomacy in the Global South

China is using its dual-use space industry to lock in long-term influence across the Global South, creating strategic, economic, and security dependencies that will shape the future balance of power in orbit.

Digital Report by Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs — January 15, 2026

China’s Rare Earth Campaign Against Japan

China’s imposition of new rare earth export restrictions on Japan, following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, represents an escalation in China–Japan tensions and highlights Beijing’s increasing reliance on mineral export controls as a deterrence tool.

Critical Questions by Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz — January 13, 2026

When Faith and Geopolitics Collide

The Dalai Lama is widely revered as an advocate for human rights and nonviolence, but Beijing considers him an existential threat. When the 90-year-old monk passes, a succession crisis will ignite geopolitical flashpoints that world leaders are not yet prepared to manage.

Report by Henrietta Levin and Alison Bartel — January 9, 2026

Greenland, Rare Earths, and Arctic Security

Greenland holds globally significant rare earth resources, but harsh conditions and weak infrastructure have stalled mining. U.S. interests are best advanced not through coercion, but coordinated investment with European allies to counter China’s influence.

Report by Meredith Schwartz and Gracelin Baskaran — January 8, 2026

The United States Cannot Go It Alone in Venezuela

Decisive U.S. action in Venezuela has showcased U.S. power but risks provoking long-term resistance from adversaries, hedging by partners, and anxiety among allies. Without coalition-building and post-crisis leadership, short-term success could erode U.S. influence.

Commentary by Jon B. Alterman — January 5, 2026

Strengthening National Security Resilience in Japan

Japan has many strengths that give it tremendous potential for resilience. However, further investments are required to bolster relatively undeveloped elements of national security resilience that China or another foe may seek to exploit.

Report by Daniel Byman, Nicholas Szechenyi, and Riley McCabe — December 18, 2025

Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future

As global power diffuses and multilateralism fractures, a set of rising states increasingly claim the mantle of the “Global South,” reshaping institutions, challenging Western dominance, and forcing the United States to rethink how it engages a rapidly changing world.

Report by Jon B. Alterman and Lily McElwee — December 2, 2025

Executive Summary – Fulcrums of Order

As rising powers reshape the global landscape, the United States must shift from defending the status quo to building pragmatic coalitions, addressing Global South grievances, and engaging hinge states with a clear understanding of their politics.

Brief by Jon B. Alterman — December 2, 2025