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On the Horizon, Vol. 8

The 2025 PONI Nuclear Scholars explore the future of nuclear strategy, offering perspectives from emerging experts on disruptive technology, intensifying geopolitical rivalries, and strategic stability.

Report by Doreen Horschig — December 18, 2025

Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis — November 18, 2025

Can the United States Immediately Return to Nuclear Testing?

President Trump’s post raises technical questions about how and if the United States could “immediately” return to nuclear testing, and political considerations about the signaling behind nuclear testing and who would benefit most from a return to testing.

Critical Questions by Heather Williams — October 30, 2025

Should the United States Extend New START Limits?

CSIS’s Heather Williams, Tom Karako, and Kari Bingen discuss whether the Trump administration should accept Putin’s suggestion to informally extend the limits of the START treaty.

Transcript — October 10, 2025

Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear Risk

The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.

Commentary by Heather Williams, Joseph Rodgers, and Elizabeth Kos — September 16, 2025

Parading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the Shadows

China's Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.

Commentary by Joseph Rodgers and Heather Williams — September 4, 2025