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The Costs and Global Trade-Offs of U.S. Military Action Against Venezuela

U.S. military operations in the Caribbean, now in their sixth month, cost $31 million per day, $3 million of which is unbudgeted. The larger cost is the strategic trade-off in the allocation of military assets: Forces in the Caribbean are not available for other hotspots.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — January 15, 2026

China’s Rare Earth Campaign Against Japan

China’s imposition of new rare earth export restrictions on Japan, following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, represents an escalation in China–Japan tensions and highlights Beijing’s increasing reliance on mineral export controls as a deterrence tool.

Critical Questions by Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz — January 13, 2026

Would Air Strikes Against Iran Work?

History shows that air strikes alone struggle to achieve complex policy goals, but used in Iran now, they could trigger a domino effect that leads to the collapse of Iran's repressive authoritarian regime.

Critical Questions by Clayton Swope — January 13, 2026

Why the Golden Fleet Will Sail

Debates over a new battleship miss the larger issue—how to generate affordable naval firepower at scale. Seen as an arsenal ship, a “Golden Fleet” could reinforce distributed maritime operations while helping reform U.S. shipbuilding.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — January 9, 2026

Greenland, Rare Earths, and Arctic Security

Greenland holds globally significant rare earth resources, but harsh conditions and weak infrastructure have stalled mining. U.S. interests are best advanced not through coercion, but coordinated investment with European allies to counter China’s influence.

Report by Meredith Schwartz and Gracelin Baskaran — January 8, 2026

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

The Maduro Raid: A Military Victory with No Viable Endgame

The capture of Maduro and his wife was brilliantly executed, but Maduro’s officials remain in charge. The administration’s plans to work through these officials and ignore the opposition will likely fail, requiring additional air and missile strikes.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — January 5, 2026