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What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

Ghost Busters: Options for Breaking Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Countering Russia’s ghost fleet requires more than sanctions. A coordinated strategy using open-source intelligence, maritime law, and multilateral diplomacy can impose real costs on illicit trade networks fueling Moscow’s war—without escalating military conflict.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — December 15, 2025

How to Defend Ukraine’s Skies During Peace Negotiations

How many aircraft are needed to secure Ukraine’s airspace during a ceasefire? As history shows, deterrence requires strength. This analysis examines the force posture necessary to uphold stability and prevent Russian provocation.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen, Mark Montgomery, and Jose M. Macias III — August 20, 2025

Operational Fires in the Age of Punishment

Russia’s decoupling of firepower from maneuver in Ukraine signals a dangerous shift toward punitive, algorithmic warfare—forcing NATO to rethink doctrine, deterrence, and the role of human-machine integration in future conflicts.

Report by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — May 6, 2025

Competition in the Shadow of Technology

Technological advancements are reshaping international relations and deterrence strategies; this report examines the strategic calculus behind revealing disruptive military capabilities and their impact on great power competition in an era of unprecedented innovation.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, Can Mutlu, and Jose M. Macias III — December 16, 2024

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Next National Security Council

As the National Security Council readies for transition, it’s time to move from static reports to AI-driven insights, creating a smarter, faster policy engine to guide the United States' national security strategy in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — November 13, 2024

Peace, Ceasefire, or Stalemate? How Wars End and the Road Ahead for Ukraine

Wars begin, end, or freeze in time. What does data reveal about Ukraine’s likely outcomes? With only 30% of interstate wars ending in victory and over half in stalemates or ceasefires, Ukraine's path may mirror modern conflict patterns.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — November 8, 2024

Maintaining NATO Cohesion in the Gray Zone

In the future, NATO will begin to confront strategic challenges that will create new risks to alliance cohesion brought on by the rise of multi-domain operations. The alliance must now consider developing strategies that include partner nations in novel operations.

Commentary by Brandon Valeriano, Mikkel Storm Jensen, and Jose M. Macias III — July 8, 2024