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Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis — November 18, 2025

Russia’s Latest Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Nuclear Testing?

President Putin’s instruction for Russian military and political leaders to begin “preparations for nuclear weapons tests” follows President Trump’s similar order last week, but also fits a wider pattern of nuclear saber-rattling tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Critical Questions by Heather Williams and Lachlan MacKenzie — November 5, 2025

Game On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms Control

Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?

Report by Heather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan MacKenzie, and Catherine Murphy — April 21, 2025

Why Does the United States Need a More Flexible Nuclear Force?

Deterrence is emerging as a theme for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, but questions remain about the Trump administration’s ability to deliver and maintain the nation’s nuclear deterrent.

Critical Questions by Heather Williams and Lachlan MacKenzie — April 3, 2025

Project Atom 2024: Intra-War Deterrence in a Two-Peer Environment

There is a growing risk that U.S. adversaries might resort to nuclear use in a regional conflict. To help address for this threat, the Project on Nuclear Issues invited a group of experts to develop competing strategies for responding to strategic deterrence failure.

Report by Heather Williams, Reja Younis, Lachlan MacKenzie, Christopher A. Ford, Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Ankit Panda, Melanie W. Sisson, and Gregory Weaver — November 18, 2024