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Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis — November 18, 2025

Russia’s Latest Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Nuclear Testing?

President Putin’s instruction for Russian military and political leaders to begin “preparations for nuclear weapons tests” follows President Trump’s similar order last week, but also fits a wider pattern of nuclear saber-rattling tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Critical Questions by Heather Williams and Lachlan MacKenzie — November 5, 2025

Can the United States Immediately Return to Nuclear Testing?

President Trump’s post raises technical questions about how and if the United States could “immediately” return to nuclear testing, and political considerations about the signaling behind nuclear testing and who would benefit most from a return to testing.

Critical Questions by Heather Williams — October 30, 2025

Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear Risk

The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.

Commentary by Heather Williams, Joseph Rodgers, and Elizabeth Kos — September 16, 2025

Parading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the Shadows

China's Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.

Commentary by Joseph Rodgers and Heather Williams — September 4, 2025

What Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really Mean

Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump's announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev's response to Russia's announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.

Commentary by Heather Williams — August 7, 2025

Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild?

U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.

Commentary by Joseph Rodgers, Heather Williams, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. — August 6, 2025

Options for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear Facility

There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.

Commentary by Heather Williams — June 18, 2025