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The Costs and Global Trade-Offs of U.S. Military Action Against Venezuela

U.S. military operations in the Caribbean, now in their sixth month, cost $31 million per day, $3 million of which is unbudgeted. The larger cost is the strategic trade-off in the allocation of military assets: Forces in the Caribbean are not available for other hotspots.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — January 15, 2026

The Maduro Raid: A Military Victory with No Viable Endgame

The capture of Maduro and his wife was brilliantly executed, but Maduro’s officials remain in charge. The administration’s plans to work through these officials and ignore the opposition will likely fail, requiring additional air and missile strikes.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — January 5, 2026

Is Venezuela a Critical Minerals Target?

Venezuela sits on sizable gold resources—but geology alone doesn’t make a minerals power. With nationalization, informal mining, and deep governance risks, do minerals factor into U.S. strategy at all, or remain largely irrelevant?

Critical Questions by Gracelin Baskaran — January 5, 2026

What Just Happened in Venezuela? And What Comes Next?

What is the future of Venezuela? Is there a chance for a transition to democracy? Will the United States be able to work with a protégé of Maduro to help govern Venezuela? CSIS experts discussed the aftermath of the U.S. strike on Venezuela, addressing these questions and more.

Transcript — January 5, 2026

Maduro Captured: What Comes Next for Venezuela?

Maduro’s capture is a significant tactical victory for the United States, the region, and Venezuelans. Whether it leads to long-term strategic gains for the United States and Venezuelans, meaning a return to democracy, will be clear only with time.

Commentary by Ryan C. Berg — January 3, 2026

USS Ford arrives in the Caribbean: Will It Strike or Stand Down?

With the redeployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean reaches a level unseen since the Cold War. The aircraft carrier’s arrival suggests a shift from a campaign against drug smugglers to one that includes undermining the Maduro regime. 

Analysis by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — November 13, 2025

U.S. Carrier to the Caribbean: A Step Closer to War

Moving a carrier strike group is highly significant. U.S. forces are increasingly well positioned to conduct an air campaign against either the cartels or Venezuela—but don't yet have the combat power for a ground invasion.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — October 24, 2025