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Why Did the United States Seize a Venezuelan Oil Shipment?

By itself, the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil cargo won’t rattle oil markets. But it likely signals a new commitment to sanctions enforcement that will complicate “shadow fleet” operations and ratchet up the pressure on Maduro to step aside.

Critical Questions by Clayton Seigle — December 12, 2025

The Russia Oil Surcharge: Anticipating the Benefits and Challenges

The proposed surcharge will drive Russian revenues lower and free up considerable funding for Washington’s national and economic security priorities. Every dollar of oil revenue reduction shrinks Russia’s fiscal cushion and ratchets up the political pressure on Moscow.

Commentary by Clayton Seigle — August 26, 2025

How War with Iran Could Disrupt Energy Exports at the Strait of Hormuz

A full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely, but major oil disruptions remain probable. Iran could deploy passive tools like underwater mines or take more active measures using gunboats to harass tankers, threatening the flow of 20 million barrels per day.

Critical Questions by Clayton Seigle — June 23, 2025

Too Soon to Rule Out Middle East Energy Disruption

An oil supply disruption from the Middle East war remains possible if Tehran is cornered. Israel has limited risk by targeting domestic Iranian energy sites. OPEC spare capacity helps, but using it to replace lost Iranian barrels could trigger political backlash.

Commentary by Clayton Seigle — June 16, 2025

Experts React: Energy Policy in the Reconciliation Debate

The House of Representatives released its initial budget reconciliation bill, significantly changing the energy policy landscape in the United States. In this Experts React, our team examines the most momentous, surprising, and nuanced aspects of the proposed legislation.

Commentary by Joseph Majkut, Clayton Seigle, Kyle Danish, Leslie Abrahams, Jane Nakano, Arushi Sharma Frank, and Mathias Zacarias — May 15, 2025