How Much More Oil from Venezuela—and How Soon?

Venezuelan oil production could rebound under adequate political, legal, fiscal, and operating conditions.

  1. The multi-decade history of Venezuelan oil production illustrates the collapse in productive capacity from its high point around 3.4 million barrels per day in the 1970s to less than 1 million barrels per day in the 2020s; this was caused by oil sector expropriations, chronic government mismanagement and underinvestment, and crippling sanctions. 

  2. In a modest growth scenario that assumes adequate political, legal, fiscal, and operating conditions, Venezuelan oil output could rebound to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day by 2028 as sanctions ease and damaged existing oil wells are refurbished. 

  3. In a significant growth scenario featuring the aforementioned conditions and substantially larger capital commitments by industry partners, Venezuelan oil production could approach 3 million barrels per day by 2035, supported by new upgrader facilities and greenfield projects coming online. 

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Clayton Seigle

Clayton Seigle

Senior Fellow and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy Security and Climate Change Program

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