Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

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Executive Education

Inside DOD’s FY 2027 Budget

This course provides key insights from CSIS experts and practitioners on what the Trump Administration’s FY 2027 budget and strategy documents reveal about strategic priorities, major budget movements, force structure adds and cuts, and acquisition program changes.

Course Date: April 9, 2026
Registration Closes: March 26, 2026
Executive Education

Meeting China's Military Challenge

Engage with today’s most pressing defense challenges in this two-day course, featuring expert-led seminars and an immersive wargame which will illuminate the consequences of a U.S.-China conflict and the effectiveness of U.S. force structure and strategy.

Course Date: April 7, 2026
Registration Closes: March 24, 2026

The Costs and Global Trade-Offs of U.S. Military Action Against Venezuela

U.S. military operations in the Caribbean, now in their sixth month, cost $31 million per day, $3 million of which is unbudgeted. The larger cost is the strategic trade-off in the allocation of military assets: Forces in the Caribbean are not available for other hotspots.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — January 15, 2026

Imagery from Venezuela Shows a Surgical Strike, Not Shock and Awe

CSIS experts analyze new satellite imagery of U.S. strikes against Venezuela carried out during the mission to capture Nicolás Maduro.

Commentary by Ryan C. Berg, Mark F. Cancian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Jennifer Jun, Henry Ziemer, and Chris H. Park — January 9, 2026

What Just Happened in Venezuela? And What Comes Next?

What is the future of Venezuela? Is there a chance for a transition to democracy? Will the United States be able to work with a protégé of Maduro to help govern Venezuela? CSIS experts discuss the aftermath of the U.S. strike on Venezuela, addressing these questions and more.

Event — January 5, 2026

Audio Briefs

The Maduro Raid: A Military Victory With No Viable Endgame

An audio version of “⁠The Maduro Raid: A Military Victory With No Viable Endgame⁠,” a new Commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian — January 5, 2026

Audio Briefs

The Maduro Raid: A Military Victory with No Viable Endgame

The capture of Maduro and his wife was brilliantly executed, but Maduro’s officials remain in charge. The administration’s plans to work through these officials and ignore the opposition will likely fail, requiring additional air and missile strikes.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — January 5, 2026

The Golden Fleet’s Battleship Will Never Sail

The recently announced “Trump” class of battleships is cast as the world’s largest and most powerful ships. But these ships will take years to design, cost $9 billion each, and run counter to the Navy's new concept of distributed operations. They will never be built.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — December 23, 2025

The Unfinished Plan for Peace in Ukraine: Provision by Provision

President Trump is pressuring Ukraine to sign his 28-point “peace agreement,” amid criticism that the plan is pro-Russian and too vague to implement. This is not an agreement but may be a starting point. Indeed, the Europeans have put forth their own, more balanced version.

Report by Mark F. Cancian and Maria Snegovaya — November 24, 2025

USS Ford arrives in the Caribbean: Will It Strike or Stand Down?

With the redeployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean reaches a level unseen since the Cold War. The aircraft carrier’s arrival suggests a shift from a campaign against drug smugglers to one that includes undermining the Maduro regime. 

Analysis by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — November 13, 2025