Ukraine War

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is one of the defining conflicts of the twenty-first century, impacting everything from allied security architectures to global energy and food supply chains to the U.S. defense industry. CSIS produces leading research on the war in Ukraine and how it impacts European and U.S. security. 

Photo: William Farmerie/U.S. Navy/Getty Images

Photo: William Farmerie/U.S. Navy/Getty Images

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

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Featured Analysis

Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu via Getty Images

Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu via Getty Images

Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine

Russia has performed poorly on the battlefield in Ukraine and will likely hit the 1 million casualty mark in the summer of 2025. New CSIS data details Russia's slow rate of advance, heavy losses of equipment, and significant casualties.

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Brief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe — June 3, 2025

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Spotlight On:  Drone Warfare

The Russia-Ukraine Drone War: Innovation on the Frontlines and Beyond

Video — May 28, 2025

Past Events

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Experts

Seth G. Jones

Seth G. Jones

President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair
Max Bergmann

Max Bergmann

Director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center
Daniel Byman

Daniel Byman

Director, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program
Emily Harding

Emily Harding

Vice President, Defense and Security Department; Director, Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program
Benjamin Jensen

Benjamin Jensen

Director, Futures Lab and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department
Jerry McGinn

Jerry McGinn

Director, Center for the Industrial Base and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department

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What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

Ghost Busters: Options for Breaking Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Countering Russia’s ghost fleet requires more than sanctions. A coordinated strategy using open-source intelligence, maritime law, and multilateral diplomacy can impose real costs on illicit trade networks fueling Moscow’s war—without escalating military conflict.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — December 15, 2025

What Is the Strategy in the Ukraine-Russia Peace Negotiations?

Intensive negotiations are ongoing this week on another Ukraine peace plan. While the Trump administration’s unorthodox, hard-hitting approach to negotiations have forced parties to the table before, it’s too early to know if this approach will work.

Critical Questions by Emily Harding — November 24, 2025

Will Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine Succeed?

Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine could open the door to negotiations—but its territorial concessions, weak security guarantees, and amnesty provisions risk making the deal collapse before it begins.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — November 21, 2025

Information: Too Important to Centralize

Modern warfare runs on information—but centralizing it under a single commander risks slowing decisions and hindering the force. It must be dispersed, empowering leaders at all echelons to act independently and outpace the adversary.

Commentary by Todd Simmons — November 17, 2025

Russia’s Intense Air Campaign in October

Russia's recent missile strikes indicate a transition in strategy and doctrine, where industrial capacity plays a growing role in determining battlefield dynamics. Massed salvos have given way to a more flexible strike schedule, necessitating an adaptive defensive strategy.

Commentary by Yasir Atalan, Erik Tiersten-Nyman, and Benjamin Jensen — November 14, 2025

Will the Tomahawks Save Ukraine?

About a thousand Tomahawk missiles in the U.S. stockpile today are available for transfer to Ukraine. They could have a major impact on the war, but the Pacific theater needs and Russian opposition could disrupt any deal.

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — October 17, 2025

What Could a Trump Peace Plan in Ukraine Look Like?

As Trump’s team pushes for a Ukraine peace deal amid new pressure on Russia, experts and AI models outline the most likely outcomes, from frozen frontlines to the economic and security terms shaping negotiations.

Critical Questions by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — October 17, 2025