U.S. Policies Only Temporarily Shake China's Shipbuilding Dominance

Analysis by Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs

Published October 16, 2025

New U.S. policies aimed at curtailing China’s growing dominance over global shipbuilding went into effect on October 14. The rollout of these measures over the past year triggered temporary volatility in international ship ordering behavior but has not yet produced lasting change in China’s market position.

Orders at Chinese shipyards surged in the months following the launch of an Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) investigation into China’s shipbuilding industry in the spring of 2024. Over 75 percent of new tonnage ordered globally in the second half of 2024 went to Chinese yards—the highest share in years.
Purchases of Chinese-built ships plunged in early 2025 after the USTR determined that China had employed nonmarket practices and announced a new docking fee regime targeting Chinese-built vessels. Orders at major non-Chinese yards in Japan and South Korea remained within their typical range, indicating that the contraction was driven by deferred Chinese orders rather than a broader redistribution of demand.
Yet, by mid-2025, Chinese order volumes had rebounded to more than 65 percent of global tonnage and exceeded 80 percent by August. The speed and magnitude of the recovery suggests that the underlying cost advantages and production capacity of Chinese shipyards continue to anchor China’s position at the center of the global shipbuilding market, despite temporary disruptions.

CSIS Charts is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).